Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 73

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith MUFFS catch, recovered by CAR-24-C.Henderson at CAR 26. CAR-12-S.Smith was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model