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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 7 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to CAR 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-S.Smith to CAR 14 for no gain (51-J.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP