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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 14 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DET 23 for 3 yards (44-M.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model