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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 66

New England Patriots 18 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Thornton (29-C.Taylor-Britt). Penalty on NE-60-D.Andrews, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -1.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.63 EP