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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New England Patriots 18

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-D.Chrisman punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-Ma.Jones MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NE 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.42 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -1.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model