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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model