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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 68

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 17-M.Palardy punts 45 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 41 for 18 yards (8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model