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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 84

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to CIN 38, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 45 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.94 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model