4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 22 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 4-D.Chrisman punts 36 yards to NE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.10 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model