Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 22

(13:22) 17-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-T.Addington. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 19 for 10 yards (3-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.97 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model