4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 56

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 15

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 17-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model