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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 2-E.McPherson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model