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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 33

Chicago Bears 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Pettis (91-E.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model