Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 13 – Buffalo Bills 28

(2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 12-V.Jones (27-T.White) [58-M.Milano].

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.70 EP