Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 81

Chicago Bears 13 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to BUF 44, Center-48-P.Scales. 20-N.Hines to CHI 40 for 16 yards (35-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.49 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model