Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 21 – Chicago Bears 13

(9:20) 8-S.Martin punts 62 yards to CHI 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.13 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 83, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model