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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 16

Chicago Bears 10 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 84-R.Griffin to BUF 13 for 3 yards (27-T.White). Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 1-J.Fields pass short left to 84-R.Griffin to BUF 14 for 2 yards (27-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model