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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 6 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.97 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model