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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 19

Chicago Bears 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 2-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model