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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 31

Chicago Bears 7 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(5:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to BUF 25 for 6 yards (27-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model