Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 96

Buffalo Bills 6 – Chicago Bears 7

(8:07) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to 50, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at BUF 38 for 12 yards (52-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.35 EP
55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 96, worth -5.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model