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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model