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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 46, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -3.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.53 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 47, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model