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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 6 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to SF 1, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-58-T.Muse.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model