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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to SEA 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.30 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP