Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.69 EP
51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model