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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model