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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model