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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model