Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 26, Center-46-C.Tinker. 3-R.McCloud to SF 34 for 8 yards (59-J.Rhattigan). PENALTY on SF-22-J.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model