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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model