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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model