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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 44

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP