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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CAR 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model