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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 57

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model