Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(2:21) 13-B.Kern punts 40 yards to CHI 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 29 for 4 yards (45-R.Lovato; 17-N.Dean).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model