Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 76

Chicago Bears 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(6:56) 16-T.Gill punts 51 yards to PHI 25, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model