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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 20

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model