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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end to CHI 31 for 3 yards (53-N.Morrow). measurement

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model