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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 60

Chicago Bears 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to PHI 4, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-83-N.Webster.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP