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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 11-A.Brown (33-J.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model