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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to CHI 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 40 for 20 yards (42-K.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP