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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model