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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to NE 12, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model