Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 62

New England Patriots 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(7:12) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to LV 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 30 for 12 yards (50-R.McMillan).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.24 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model