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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-M.Hollins to LV 31 for 12 yards (25-Ma.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model