Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 72

New England Patriots 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(2:19) 17-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to LV 19, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.57 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model