Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 24

(3:20) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to NE 28, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.34 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model