Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – New England Patriots 16

(8:32) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to NE 15, Center-47-T.Sieg. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 22 for 7 yards (22-A.Abdullah, 36-C.Bolton).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.41 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model