4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 35

New England Patriots 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model